Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 26

Legia Warszawa–Raków Częstochowa

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

6'Raków CzęstochowaL. Diaby-Fadiga
71'Legia WarszawaJ. Nsame (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Legia Warszawa		Raków Częstochowa
17	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
413	Passes	379
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Legia Warszawa 1.36 · Raków Częstochowa 1.14. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Legia Warszawa 17 · Raków Częstochowa 11; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

L. Kuzma→

3.86

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “Legia Warszawa to win”. Second comes “Raków Częstochowa to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Legia Warszawa, 1.14 for Raków Częstochowa.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,151 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Legia Warszawa to win41.0%

Draw28.8%

Raków Częstochowa to win30.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Legia Warszawa lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time42.7%

Raków Częstochowa lead at half-time28.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Legia Warszawa ahead or level71.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Raków Częstochowa ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1151 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Legia Warszawa: at least 14Actual: 18
Raków Częstochowa: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Legia Warszawa: at least 4Actual: 7
Raków Częstochowa: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Legia Warszawa score1.36

Attack: Legia Warszawa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score1.14

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Legia Warszawa concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–010.3%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.