Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 25

Pogon Szczecin–Korona Kielce

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 16 March 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin

Goals and red cards

24'Korona KielceValentin Cojocaru (own goal)
68'Pogon SzczecinJosé Pozo
90'Pogon SzczecinJosé Pozo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pogon Szczecin		Korona Kielce
23	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	4
21	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
508	Passes	295
431	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pogon Szczecin 1.76 · Korona Kielce 1.12. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Pogon Szczecin 23 · Korona Kielce 5; on target 7 and 4.
Pogon Szczecin kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

D. Kos→

4.53

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Pogon Szczecin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.12 for Korona Kielce.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Pogon Szczecin win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,141 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pogon Szczecin to win52.0%

Draw25.3%

Korona Kielce to win22.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Pogon Szczecin win or draw77.3%

12 — any result other than a draw74.7%

X2 — draw or Korona Kielce win48.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Pogon Szczecin lead at half-time34.5%

Level at half-time42.9%

Korona Kielce lead at half-time22.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Pogon Szczecin ahead or level77.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Korona Kielce ahead65.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1141 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pogon Szczecin: at least 11Actual: 12
Korona Kielce: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Pogon Szczecin: at least 5Actual: 10
Korona Kielce: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,135 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pogon Szczecin score1.76

Attack: Pogon Szczecin score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Korona Kielce's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Korona Kielce score1.12

Attack: Korona Kielce score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pogon Szczecin's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.7%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1141 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 126 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.