Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 25

Gornik Zabrze–Raków Częstochowa

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze

Goals and red cards

23'Gornik ZabrzeLukáš Sadílek
43'Gornik ZabrzeLukáš Ambros (assist: Erik Janža)
79'Raków CzęstochowaMichael Ameyaw (assist: K. Struski)
88'Gornik ZabrzeLukáš Sadílek (assist: M. Khlan)
90+2'Gornik ZabrzeL. Podolski · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gornik Zabrze		Raków Częstochowa
13	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
341	Passes	436
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gornik Zabrze 1.26 · Raków Częstochowa 1.23. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Gornik Zabrze 13 · Raków Częstochowa 15; on target 6 and 3.
Raków Częstochowa kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

P. Raczkowski→

5.62

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Gornik Zabrze to win”. Second comes “Raków Częstochowa to win” at 34.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Gornik Zabrze, 1.23 for Raków Częstochowa.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,140 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gornik Zabrze to win36.2%

Draw29.1%

Raków Częstochowa to win34.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Gornik Zabrze lead at half-time26.2%

Level at half-time44.5%

Raków Częstochowa lead at half-time29.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Gornik Zabrze ahead or level70.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Raków Częstochowa ahead73.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1140 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gornik Zabrze: at least 11Actual: 12
Raków Częstochowa: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Gornik Zabrze: at least 4Actual: 4
Raków Częstochowa: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gornik Zabrze score1.26

Attack: Gornik Zabrze score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score1.23

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gornik Zabrze's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–09.5%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.