Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 24

Radomiak Radom–GKS Katowice

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 13:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

45'GKS KatowiceA. Jedrych

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radomiak Radom		GKS Katowice
15	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
67%	Possession	33%
472	Passes	239
363	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomiak Radom 1.73 · GKS Katowice 1.14. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Radomiak Radom 15 · GKS Katowice 9; on target 2 and 2.
Radomiak Radom kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

D. Kos→

4.50

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.8%: “Radomiak Radom to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Radomiak Radom, 1.14 for GKS Katowice.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — Radomiak Radom win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,129 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomiak Radom to win50.8%

Draw25.5%

GKS Katowice to win23.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	25

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Radomiak Radom win or draw76.3%

12 — any result other than a draw74.5%

X2 — draw or GKS Katowice win49.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Radomiak Radom lead at half-time37.2%

Level at half-time39.6%

GKS Katowice lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomiak Radom ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or GKS Katowice ahead62.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1129 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomiak Radom: at least 12Actual: 11
GKS Katowice: at least 12Actual: 25

Corners

Radomiak Radom: at least 4Actual: 8
GKS Katowice: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,135 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomiak Radom score1.73

Attack: Radomiak Radom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GKS Katowice's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GKS Katowice score1.14

Attack: GKS Katowice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radomiak Radom's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.7%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.