Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 24

Widzew Łódź–Lech Poznan

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

28'Lech PoznanG. Thordarson (assist: T. Ouma)
34'Widzew ŁódźFran Álvarez (assist: M. Krajewski)
52'Widzew ŁódźE. Kornvig

Match statistics

Match statistics
Widzew Łódź		Lech Poznan
11	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
29%	Possession	71%
214	Passes	561
146	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Widzew Łódź 1.27 · Lech Poznan 1.51. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Widzew Łódź 11 · Lech Poznan 12; on target 4 and 6.
Lech Poznan kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

S. Marciniak→

4.07

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

107

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Lech Poznan to win”. Second comes “Widzew Łódź to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Widzew Łódź, 1.51 for Lech Poznan.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,127 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Widzew Łódź to win30.7%

Draw27.2%

Lech Poznan to win42.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Widzew Łódź win or draw58.0%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Lech Poznan win69.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Widzew Łódź lead at half-time20.7%

Level at half-time40.1%

Lech Poznan lead at half-time39.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Widzew Łódź ahead or level60.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Lech Poznan ahead79.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1127 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Widzew Łódź: at least 11Actual: 21
Lech Poznan: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Widzew Łódź: at least 4Actual: 3
Lech Poznan: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Widzew Łódź score1.27

Attack: Widzew Łódź score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lech Poznan's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lech Poznan score1.51

Attack: Lech Poznan score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Widzew Łódź's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.8%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1127 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 125 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.