Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 20

GKS Katowice–Widzew Łódź

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

45'GKS KatowiceLukas Klemenz (assist: B. Nowak)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GKS Katowice		Widzew Łódź
8	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	1
5	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	7
3	Offsides	0
28%	Possession	72%
217	Passes	541
129	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GKS Katowice 1.67 · Widzew Łódź 1.19. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots GKS Katowice 8 · Widzew Łódź 9; on target 4 and 1.
Widzew Łódź kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

D. Kos→

4.48

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “GKS Katowice to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for GKS Katowice, 1.19 for Widzew Łódź.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (1X — GKS Katowice win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,094 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GKS Katowice to win48.2%

Draw26.0%

Widzew Łódź to win25.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — GKS Katowice win or draw74.3%

12 — any result other than a draw74.0%

X2 — draw or Widzew Łódź win51.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

GKS Katowice lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time40.4%

Widzew Łódź lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — GKS Katowice ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Widzew Łódź ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1094 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GKS Katowice: at least 11Actual: 17
Widzew Łódź: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

GKS Katowice: at least 4Actual: 3
Widzew Łódź: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,135 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GKS Katowice score1.67

Attack: GKS Katowice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Widzew Łódź's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Widzew Łódź score1.19

Attack: Widzew Łódź score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GKS Katowice's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.5%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.