Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 12

Korona Kielce–Gornik Zabrze

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 12:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Exbud Arena, Kielce

Goals and red cards

45'Korona KielceM. Remacle (penalty)
90'Gornik ZabrzeRafał Janicki (assist: P. Olkowski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Korona Kielce		Gornik Zabrze
12	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	7
3	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
351	Passes	473
275	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Korona Kielce 1.35 · Gornik Zabrze 1.18. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Korona Kielce 12 · Gornik Zabrze 16; on target 4 and 3.
Gornik Zabrze kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Szymon Marciniak, Poland→

3.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Korona Kielce to win”. Second comes “Gornik Zabrze to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Korona Kielce, 1.18 for Gornik Zabrze.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,014 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Korona Kielce to win39.7%

Draw28.8%

Gornik Zabrze to win31.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Korona Kielce lead at half-time23.9%

Level at half-time48.2%

Gornik Zabrze lead at half-time27.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Korona Kielce ahead or level72.1%

12 — not level at half-time51.8%

X2 — level or Gornik Zabrze ahead76.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1014 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Korona Kielce: at least 11Actual: 7
Gornik Zabrze: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Korona Kielce: at least 5Actual: 9
Gornik Zabrze: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Korona Kielce score1.35

Attack: Korona Kielce score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gornik Zabrze concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gornik Zabrze score1.18

Attack: Gornik Zabrze score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Korona Kielce's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–09.9%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.