Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 9

GKS Katowice–Cracovia Krakow

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 19 September 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

33'Cracovia KrakowAlan Czerwiński (own goal)
40'Cracovia KrakowG. Henriksson
55'Cracovia KrakowF. Stojilkovic (assist: M. Klich)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GKS Katowice		Cracovia Krakow
16	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
474	Passes	365
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GKS Katowice 1.52 · Cracovia Krakow 1.40. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots GKS Katowice 16 · Cracovia Krakow 13; on target 5 and 6.
GKS Katowice kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Szymon Marciniak, Poland→

3.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “GKS Katowice to win”. Second comes “Cracovia Krakow to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for GKS Katowice, 1.40 for Cracovia Krakow.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 983 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GKS Katowice to win39.5%

Draw26.6%

Cracovia Krakow to win33.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — GKS Katowice win or draw66.1%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Cracovia Krakow win60.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

GKS Katowice lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time39.8%

Cracovia Krakow lead at half-time33.2%

First-half double chance

1X — GKS Katowice ahead or level66.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Cracovia Krakow ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 983 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GKS Katowice: at least 11Actual: 6
Cracovia Krakow: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

GKS Katowice: at least 5Actual: 11
Cracovia Krakow: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GKS Katowice score1.52

Attack: GKS Katowice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cracovia Krakow's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cracovia Krakow score1.40

Attack: Cracovia Krakow score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GKS Katowice concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.5%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 983 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 42 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.