Liga I · Romania · Final

Dinamo Bucuresti–FCSB

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 29 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dinamo Bucuresti 1.40 · FCSB 1.19. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

M. Barbu→

4.36

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Dinamo Bucuresti to win”. Second comes “FCSB to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Dinamo Bucuresti, 1.19 for FCSB.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,080 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dinamo Bucuresti to win40.9%

Draw28.3%

FCSB to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Dinamo Bucuresti win or draw69.2%

12 — any result other than a draw71.7%

X2 — draw or FCSB win59.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Dinamo Bucuresti lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time44.5%

FCSB lead at half-time30.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Dinamo Bucuresti ahead or level69.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or FCSB ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1080 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dinamo Bucuresti: at least 11
FCSB: at least 11

Corners

Dinamo Bucuresti: at least 4
FCSB: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dinamo Bucuresti score1.40

Attack: Dinamo Bucuresti score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: FCSB's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FCSB score1.19

Attack: FCSB score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: Dinamo Bucuresti concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.19 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–09.6%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.