Liga I · Romania · Relegation Group - 9

Farul Constanta–Metaloglobus

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 18 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

60'MetaloglobusY. Zakir

Match statistics

Match statistics
Farul Constanta		Metaloglobus
33	Shots	14
14	Shots on target	3
23	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	14
15	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
463	Passes	329
401	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Farul Constanta 1.99 · Metaloglobus 0.80. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Farul Constanta 33 · Metaloglobus 14; on target 14 and 3.
Farul Constanta kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

K. Szabolcs→

4.00

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.7%: “Farul Constanta to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.99 for Farul Constanta, 0.80 for Metaloglobus.
The highest double chance value is 87.3% (1X — Farul Constanta win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,077 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Farul Constanta to win65.7%

Draw21.6%

Metaloglobus to win12.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Farul Constanta win or draw87.3%

12 — any result other than a draw78.4%

X2 — draw or Metaloglobus win34.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Farul Constanta lead at half-time61.7%

Level at half-time32.4%

Metaloglobus lead at half-time5.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Farul Constanta ahead or level94.1%

12 — not level at half-time67.6%

X2 — level or Metaloglobus ahead38.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1077 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Farul Constanta: at least 10Actual: 8
Metaloglobus: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Farul Constanta: at least 5Actual: 15
Metaloglobus: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Farul Constanta score1.99

Attack: Farul Constanta score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Metaloglobus concede 48% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Metaloglobus score0.80

Attack: Metaloglobus score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Farul Constanta's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.6%1–011.5%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.