Liga I · Romania · Championship Group - 8

CFR 1907 Cluj–Universitatea Craiova

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Match statistics

Match statistics
CFR 1907 Cluj		Universitatea Craiova
7	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	2
8	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
370	Passes	458
280	Accurate passes	366
15	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CFR 1907 Cluj 1.22 · Universitatea Craiova 1.17. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots CFR 1907 Cluj 7 · Universitatea Craiova 7; on target 1 and 0.
Universitatea Craiova kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

I. Kovacs→

5.07

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.3%: “CFR 1907 Cluj to win”. Second comes “Universitatea Craiova to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for CFR 1907 Cluj, 1.17 for Universitatea Craiova.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,071 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CFR 1907 Cluj to win36.3%

Draw29.8%

Universitatea Craiova to win33.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

CFR 1907 Cluj lead at half-time39.7%

Level at half-time42.8%

Universitatea Craiova lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — CFR 1907 Cluj ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Universitatea Craiova ahead60.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1071 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CFR 1907 Cluj: at least 11Actual: 15
Universitatea Craiova: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

CFR 1907 Cluj: at least 4Actual: 3
Universitatea Craiova: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CFR 1907 Cluj score1.22

Attack: CFR 1907 Cluj score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Universitatea Craiova concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Universitatea Craiova score1.17

Attack: Universitatea Craiova score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: CFR 1907 Cluj's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.3%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.