Liga I · Romania · Championship Group - 7

Universitatea Craiova–Dinamo Bucuresti

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

59'Dinamo BucurestiN. Stoioanov (assist: C. Mihai)
61'Universitatea CraiovaA. Cicaldau
90'Universitatea CraiovaS. Nsimba (assist: L. Basceanu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Universitatea Craiova		Dinamo Bucuresti
18	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	6
0	Offsides	4
56%	Possession	44%
467	Passes	359
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Universitatea Craiova 1.37 · Dinamo Bucuresti 0.95. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Universitatea Craiova 18 · Dinamo Bucuresti 8; on target 9 and 2.
Universitatea Craiova kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

K. Szabolcs→

4.15

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “Universitatea Craiova to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Universitatea Craiova, 0.95 for Dinamo Bucuresti.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (1X — Universitatea Craiova win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,069 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Universitatea Craiova to win45.8%

Draw29.3%

Dinamo Bucuresti to win24.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Universitatea Craiova lead at half-time39.1%

Level at half-time44.1%

Dinamo Bucuresti lead at half-time16.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Universitatea Craiova ahead or level83.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Dinamo Bucuresti ahead60.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1069 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Universitatea Craiova: at least 11Actual: 6
Dinamo Bucuresti: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Universitatea Craiova: at least 4Actual: 4
Dinamo Bucuresti: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Universitatea Craiova score1.37

Attack: Universitatea Craiova score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Dinamo Bucuresti concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dinamo Bucuresti score0.95

Attack: Dinamo Bucuresti score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Universitatea Craiova concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–012.7%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.