Liga I · Romania · Championship Group - 7

Universitatea Cluj–Arges Pitesti

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cluj Arena, Cluj-Napoca

Goals and red cards

90'Universitatea ClujD. Nistor (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Universitatea Cluj		Arges Pitesti
16	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	0
11	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
537	Passes	318
445	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Universitatea Cluj 1.30 · Arges Pitesti 0.82. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Universitatea Cluj 16 · Arges Pitesti 7; on target 8 and 0.
Universitatea Cluj kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Barbu→

4.37

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.4%: “Universitatea Cluj to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Universitatea Cluj, 0.82 for Arges Pitesti.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (1X — Universitatea Cluj win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,068 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Universitatea Cluj to win47.4%

Draw30.4%

Arges Pitesti to win22.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Universitatea Cluj lead at half-time36.4%

Level at half-time46.2%

Arges Pitesti lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Universitatea Cluj ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Arges Pitesti ahead63.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1068 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Universitatea Cluj: at least 10Actual: 9
Arges Pitesti: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Universitatea Cluj: at least 5Actual: 6
Arges Pitesti: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Universitatea Cluj score1.30

Attack: Universitatea Cluj score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Arges Pitesti concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arges Pitesti score0.82

Attack: Arges Pitesti score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Universitatea Cluj concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.1%1–114.8%0–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.