Liga I · Romania · Championship Group - 6

CFR 1907 Cluj–Universitatea Cluj

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

70'CFR 1907 ClujA. Cordea (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
CFR 1907 Cluj		Universitatea Cluj
15	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
346	Passes	416
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CFR 1907 Cluj 1.38 · Universitatea Cluj 1.13. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots CFR 1907 Cluj 15 · Universitatea Cluj 12; on target 2 and 1.
Universitatea Cluj kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

K. Szabolcs→

4.17

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “CFR 1907 Cluj to win”. Second comes “Universitatea Cluj to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for CFR 1907 Cluj, 1.13 for Universitatea Cluj.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,065 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CFR 1907 Cluj to win41.8%

Draw28.7%

Universitatea Cluj to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,613 of 7,009 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CFR 1907 Cluj win or draw70.6%

12 — any result other than a draw71.3%

X2 — draw or Universitatea Cluj win58.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

CFR 1907 Cluj lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time42.8%

Universitatea Cluj lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — CFR 1907 Cluj ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Universitatea Cluj ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1065 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CFR 1907 Cluj: at least 10Actual: 14
Universitatea Cluj: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

CFR 1907 Cluj: at least 4Actual: 7
Universitatea Cluj: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CFR 1907 Cluj score1.38

Attack: CFR 1907 Cluj score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Universitatea Cluj concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Universitatea Cluj score1.13

Attack: Universitatea Cluj score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: CFR 1907 Cluj's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–010.4%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1065 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 135 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.