Liga I · Romania · Championship Group - 5

Universitatea Craiova–Rapid

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

47'Universitatea CraiovaA. Al Hamlawi (assist: A. Mekvabishvili)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Universitatea Craiova		Rapid
14	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	0
3	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
432	Passes	470
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Universitatea Craiova 1.52 · Rapid 0.89. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Universitatea Craiova 14 · Rapid 6; on target 2 and 1.

Referee

K. Szabolcs→

4.27

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “Universitatea Craiova to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Universitatea Craiova, 0.89 for Rapid.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (1X — Universitatea Craiova win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Universitatea Craiova to win51.9%

Draw27.6%

Rapid to win20.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Universitatea Craiova lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time44.8%

Rapid lead at half-time24.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Universitatea Craiova ahead or level75.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Rapid ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Universitatea Craiova: at least 11Actual: 10
Rapid: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Universitatea Craiova: at least 5
Rapid: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Universitatea Craiova score1.52

Attack: Universitatea Craiova score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Rapid's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rapid score0.89

Attack: Rapid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Universitatea Craiova concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–013.0%2–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.