Liga I · Romania · Championship Group - 4

CFR 1907 Cluj–Dinamo Bucuresti

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

23'Dinamo BucurestiA. Pop (assist: C. Cirjan)
38'CFR 1907 ClujS. Sinyan

Match statistics

Match statistics
CFR 1907 Cluj		Dinamo Bucuresti
14	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
397	Passes	512
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CFR 1907 Cluj 1.34 · Dinamo Bucuresti 1.17. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots CFR 1907 Cluj 14 · Dinamo Bucuresti 15; on target 1 and 5.
Dinamo Bucuresti kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Barbu→

4.42

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “CFR 1907 Cluj to win”. Second comes “Dinamo Bucuresti to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for CFR 1907 Cluj, 1.17 for Dinamo Bucuresti.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,059 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CFR 1907 Cluj to win39.6%

Draw28.9%

Dinamo Bucuresti to win31.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,563 of 4,188 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CFR 1907 Cluj win or draw68.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.1%

X2 — draw or Dinamo Bucuresti win60.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

CFR 1907 Cluj lead at half-time46.5%

Level at half-time40.7%

Dinamo Bucuresti lead at half-time12.8%

First-half double chance

1X — CFR 1907 Cluj ahead or level87.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Dinamo Bucuresti ahead53.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1059 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CFR 1907 Cluj: at least 11Actual: 14
Dinamo Bucuresti: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

CFR 1907 Cluj: at least 4Actual: 4
Dinamo Bucuresti: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,462 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CFR 1907 Cluj score1.34

Attack: CFR 1907 Cluj score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Dinamo Bucuresti concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dinamo Bucuresti score1.17

Attack: Dinamo Bucuresti score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: CFR 1907 Cluj's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–010.0%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1059 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 103 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.