Liga I · Romania · Relegation Group - 2

FCSB–Uta Arad

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 20 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

57'FCSBD. Miculescu (assist: Darius Olaru)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FCSB		Uta Arad
13	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
8	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
572	Passes	303
471	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FCSB 2.23 · Uta Arad 0.74. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FCSB 13 · Uta Arad 10; on target 1 and 2.
FCSB kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

M. Barbu→

4.41

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.9%: “FCSB to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.23 for FCSB, 0.74 for Uta Arad.
The highest double chance value is 90.4% (1X — FCSB win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,054 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FCSB to win71.9%

Draw18.5%

Uta Arad to win9.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — FCSB win or draw90.4%

12 — any result other than a draw81.5%

X2 — draw or Uta Arad win28.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FCSB lead at half-time56.6%

Level at half-time34.7%

Uta Arad lead at half-time8.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FCSB ahead or level91.3%

12 — not level at half-time65.3%

X2 — level or Uta Arad ahead43.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1054 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FCSB: at least 10Actual: 13
Uta Arad: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

FCSB: at least 6Actual: 8
Uta Arad: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FCSB score2.23

Attack: FCSB score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: Uta Arad's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Uta Arad score0.74

Attack: Uta Arad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FCSB concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.1%1–010.7%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.