Liga I · Romania · Regular Season - 5

Uta Arad–Farul Constanta

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 August 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

8'Uta AradMarinos Tzionis (assist: Roman Alin)
61'Farul ConstantaE. Rădăslăvescu (assist: A. Ișfan)
78'Uta AradD. Pospelov (assist: Marinos Tzionis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Uta Arad		Farul Constanta
16	Shots	24
8	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	17
6	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	11
1	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
305	Passes	437
210	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Uta Arad 1.37 · Farul Constanta 1.31. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Uta Arad 16 · Farul Constanta 24; on target 8 and 7.
Farul Constanta kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

R. M. Petrescu→

3.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “Uta Arad to win”. Second comes “Farul Constanta to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Uta Arad, 1.31 for Farul Constanta.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 843 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Uta Arad to win37.3%

Draw28.0%

Farul Constanta to win34.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Uta Arad win or draw65.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.0%

X2 — draw or Farul Constanta win62.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Uta Arad lead at half-time36.7%

Level at half-time43.7%

Farul Constanta lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Uta Arad ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Farul Constanta ahead63.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 843 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Uta Arad: at least 11Actual: 6
Farul Constanta: at least 10Actual: 17

Corners

Uta Arad: at least 5Actual: 3
Farul Constanta: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Uta Arad score1.37

Attack: Uta Arad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Farul Constanta's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Farul Constanta score1.31

Attack: Farul Constanta score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Uta Arad's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.2%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 843 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 94 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.