Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 29

Valerenga–Kristiansund BK

3–0

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Technical loss
Venue: Intility Arena, Oslo

The match was not played; the result was awarded. With no result produced on the pitch, it is not used to train the model.

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valerenga 1.96 · Kristiansund BK 1.16. On the pitch: 3-0.

Referee

Daniel Higraff, Norway→

4.31

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.1%: “Valerenga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Valerenga, 1.16 for Kristiansund BK.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (1X — Valerenga win or draw).
These values were computed from 946 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valerenga to win56.1%

Draw23.4%

Kristiansund BK to win20.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Valerenga win or draw79.4%

12 — any result other than a draw76.6%

X2 — draw or Kristiansund BK win43.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Valerenga lead at half-time41.3%

Level at half-time40.1%

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Valerenga ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Kristiansund BK ahead58.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 946 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valerenga: at least 11
Kristiansund BK: at least 10

Corners

Valerenga: at least 6
Kristiansund BK: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valerenga score1.96

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.16

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Valerenga's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%2–110.9%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.