Eliteserien · Norway · Final

Aalesund–Bryne

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 11 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

77'BryneD. Moreira

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aalesund		Bryne
7	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	7
1	Offsides	4
33%	Possession	67%
293	Passes	606
192	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aalesund 1.51 · Bryne 1.56. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Aalesund 7 · Bryne 8; on target 1 and 3.
Bryne kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Tore Hansen, Norway→

3.82

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.1%: “Bryne to win”. Second comes “Aalesund to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Aalesund, 1.56 for Bryne.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 959 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aalesund to win35.8%

Draw26.0%

Bryne to win38.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Aalesund win or draw61.9%

12 — any result other than a draw74.0%

X2 — draw or Bryne win64.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aalesund lead at half-time29.4%

Level at half-time40.9%

Bryne lead at half-time29.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Aalesund ahead or level70.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Bryne ahead70.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 959 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aalesund: at least 10Actual: 9
Bryne: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Aalesund: at least 5Actual: 1
Bryne: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aalesund score1.51

Attack: Aalesund score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bryne's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bryne score1.56

Attack: Bryne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aalesund concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–29.3%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.