Eliteserien · Norway · Final

Bryne–Aalesund

0–4

HT 0–4

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bryne Stadion, Bryne

Goals and red cards

12'AalesundMathias Christensen
26'AalesundMathias Christensen (assist: H. Melland)
38'AalesundP. Ngongo (assist: P. Ngongo)
42'AalesundH. Melland (assist: M. Andresen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bryne		Aalesund
6	Shots	12
0	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
453	Passes	287
348	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bryne 2.05 · Aalesund 1.10. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Bryne 6 · Aalesund 12; on target 0 and 7.
Bryne kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Mohammad Usman Aslam, Norway→

3.78

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.5%: “Bryne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for Bryne, 1.10 for Aalesund.
The highest double chance value is 81.8% (1X — Bryne win or draw).
These values were computed from 959 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bryne to win59.5%

Draw22.3%

Aalesund to win18.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,347 of 3,894 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bryne win or draw81.8%

12 — any result other than a draw77.7%

X2 — draw or Aalesund win40.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–4

Bryne lead at half-time42.4%

Level at half-time39.1%

Aalesund lead at half-time18.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Bryne ahead or level81.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Aalesund ahead57.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 959 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bryne: at least 10Actual: 18
Aalesund: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Bryne: at least 5Actual: 4
Aalesund: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bryne score2.05

Attack: Bryne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aalesund concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aalesund score1.10

Attack: Aalesund score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bryne's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.8%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 959 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.