Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 30

Haugesund–Bryne

1–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'BryneH. Larsen (assist: E. Saunes)
6'BryneH. Larsen (assist: S. Bojadzic)
8'HaugesundS. Diarra (assist: T. Nyhammer)
73'BryneK. Haland
80'BryneJ. Ostrem (assist: K. Haland)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Haugesund		Bryne
6	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	7
3	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	8
2	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
418	Passes	417
315	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Haugesund 1.33 · Bryne 1.67. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Haugesund 6 · Bryne 14; on target 2 and 7.

Referee

Sivert Amland, Norway→

2.18

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.9%: “Bryne to win”. Second comes “Haugesund to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Haugesund, 1.67 for Bryne.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 951 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Haugesund to win29.3%

Draw25.8%

Bryne to win44.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Haugesund lead at half-time26.9%

Level at half-time41.9%

Bryne lead at half-time31.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Haugesund ahead or level68.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Bryne ahead73.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 951 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Haugesund: at least 10Actual: 6
Bryne: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Haugesund: at least 4Actual: 2
Bryne: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Haugesund score1.33

Attack: Haugesund score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bryne's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bryne score1.67

Attack: Bryne score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Haugesund concede 45% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–210.2%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.