Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 29

Ham-Kam–Haugesund

5–0

HT 5–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Ham-KamV. Jonsson (assist: A. Ekeroth)
17'Ham-KamK. Lien (assist: A. Potur)
28'Ham-KamJ. Gonstad (assist: A. Ekeroth)
33'Ham-KamJ. Gonstad
44'Ham-KamK. Lien (assist: A. Ekeroth)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		Haugesund
24	Shots	10
11	Shots on target	2
19	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	5
0	Offsides	4
55%	Possession	45%
548	Passes	463
489	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 2.10 · Haugesund 0.97. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Ham-Kam 24 · Haugesund 10; on target 11 and 2.
Ham-Kam kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Tore Hansen, Norway→

4.00

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.8%: “Ham-Kam to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for Ham-Kam, 0.97 for Haugesund.
The highest double chance value is 85.1% (1X — Ham-Kam win or draw).
These values were computed from 948 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win63.8%

Draw21.3%

Haugesund to win14.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 5–0

Ham-Kam lead at half-time49.9%

Level at half-time37.6%

Haugesund lead at half-time12.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level87.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.4%

X2 — level or Haugesund ahead50.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 948 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 11Actual: 14
Haugesund: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 6Actual: 11
Haugesund: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score2.10

Attack: Ham-Kam score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Haugesund concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Haugesund score0.97

Attack: Haugesund score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.6%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.