Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 28

Bodo/Glimt–Bryne

5–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Bodo/GlimtF. Bjørkan (assist: S. Fet)
68'Bodo/GlimtP. Berg (assist: O. Didrik Blomberg)
70'Bodo/GlimtA. Helmersen (assist: J. Hauge)
84'Bodo/GlimtS. Fet (assist: D. Bassi)
87'Bodo/GlimtM. Jorgensen (assist: O. Bjørtuft)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Bryne
27	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	0
22	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
14	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
80%	Possession	20%
787	Passes	204
710	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.77 · Bryne 0.71. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 27 · Bryne 7; on target 7 and 0.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (80%).

Referee

Stian Rovig Sletner, Norway→

3.09

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.1%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.77 for Bodo/Glimt, 0.71 for Bryne.
The highest double chance value is 94.2% (1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw).
These values were computed from 939 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win81.1%

Draw13.0%

Bryne to win5.8%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 501 of 593 predictions were correct (84.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time64.5%

Level at half-time29.5%

Bryne lead at half-time6.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level94.0%

12 — not level at half-time70.5%

X2 — level or Bryne ahead35.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 939 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 8Actual: 9
Bryne: at least 11Actual: 5

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 6Actual: 14
Bryne: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.77

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bryne's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bryne score0.71

Attack: Bryne score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.0%3–011.3%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.