Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 28

Brann–KFUM Oslo

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Brann Stadion, Bergen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'BrannU. Mathisen (assist: N. Castro)
74'KFUM OsloA. Nouri (assist: M. Ndiaye)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brann		KFUM Oslo
9	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	3
5	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
505	Passes	314
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brann 1.66 · KFUM Oslo 1.08. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Brann 9 · KFUM Oslo 5; on target 3 and 4.
Brann kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Christian Moen, Norway→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Brann to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Brann, 1.08 for KFUM Oslo.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (1X — Brann win or draw).
These values were computed from 939 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brann to win50.6%

Draw26.2%

KFUM Oslo to win23.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Brann lead at half-time34.9%

Level at half-time41.8%

KFUM Oslo lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Brann ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or KFUM Oslo ahead65.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 939 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brann: at least 11Actual: 8
KFUM Oslo: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Brann: at least 5Actual: 7
KFUM Oslo: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brann score1.66

Attack: Brann score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: KFUM Oslo concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KFUM Oslo score1.08

Attack: KFUM Oslo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brann concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.6%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.