Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 28

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Fredrikstad

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'FredrikstadD. Eid (assist: S. Sorlokk)
87'FredrikstadL. Owusu (assist: O. Ohlenschlaeger)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Fredrikstad
12	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
491	Passes	389
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.83 · Fredrikstad 1.38. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 12 · Fredrikstad 8; on target 3 and 5.
Sarpsborg 08 FF kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Daniel Higraff, Norway→

4.25

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win”. Second comes “Fredrikstad to win” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.38 for Fredrikstad.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 936 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win47.6%

Draw24.6%

Fredrikstad to win27.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time39.5%

Fredrikstad lead at half-time27.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level72.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Fredrikstad ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 936 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 10Actual: 13
Fredrikstad: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 5Actual: 7
Fredrikstad: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.83

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fredrikstad score1.38

Attack: Fredrikstad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–110.3%1–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.