Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 27

KFUM Oslo–Haugesund

1–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: KFUM Arena, Oslo

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 9%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'HaugesundC. Niyukuri (assist: N. Hamalainen)
29'HaugesundS. Diarra (assist: C. Niyukuri)
46'HaugesundS. Diarra (assist: B. Leite)
50'HaugesundS. Diarra
67'KFUM OsloM. Ndiaye

Match statistics

Match statistics
KFUM Oslo		Haugesund
27	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	8
22	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
16	Corners	1
2	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
458	Passes	321
362	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KFUM Oslo 2.17 · Haugesund 0.66. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots KFUM Oslo 27 · Haugesund 11; on target 8 and 8.
KFUM Oslo kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Svein Tore Sinnes, Norway→

3.36

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.9%: “KFUM Oslo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.17 for KFUM Oslo, 0.66 for Haugesund.
The highest double chance value is 91.3% (1X — KFUM Oslo win or draw).
These values were computed from 931 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KFUM Oslo to win72.9%

Draw18.5%

Haugesund to win8.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

KFUM Oslo lead at half-time49.2%

Level at half-time38.8%

Haugesund lead at half-time12.0%

First-half double chance

1X — KFUM Oslo ahead or level88.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Haugesund ahead50.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 931 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KFUM Oslo: at least 11Actual: 9
Haugesund: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

KFUM Oslo: at least 5Actual: 16
Haugesund: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KFUM Oslo score2.17

Attack: KFUM Oslo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Haugesund concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Haugesund score0.66

Attack: Haugesund score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KFUM Oslo concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.4%1–012.1%3–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.