Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 26

Valerenga–Stromsgodset

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Intility Arena, Oslo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'StromsgodsetJesper Taaje (assist: L. Vilsvik)
90'ValerengaE. Hagen (assist: I. Nasberg)
90'ValerengaA. Olsen (assist: S. Sjovold)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valerenga		Stromsgodset
23	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
16	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
580	Passes	284
502	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valerenga 2.08 · Stromsgodset 1.28. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Valerenga 23 · Stromsgodset 6; on target 7 and 3.
Valerenga kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Marius Grotta, Norway→

3.69

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “Valerenga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for Valerenga, 1.28 for Stromsgodset.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — Valerenga win or draw).
These values were computed from 925 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valerenga to win55.8%

Draw22.6%

Stromsgodset to win21.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Valerenga lead at half-time42.8%

Level at half-time38.4%

Stromsgodset lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Valerenga ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Stromsgodset ahead57.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 925 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valerenga: at least 10Actual: 9
Stromsgodset: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Valerenga: at least 6Actual: 16
Stromsgodset: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valerenga score2.08

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stromsgodset concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stromsgodset score1.28

Attack: Stromsgodset score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valerenga's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–110.3%2–07.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.