Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 26

Sarpsborg 08 FF–KFUM Oslo

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.3% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Sarpsborg 08 FFD. Karlsbakk (penalty)
20'Sarpsborg 08 FFS. Sørli
76'KFUM OsloS. Sandal (assist: M. Ndiaye)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		KFUM Oslo
7	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
382	Passes	620
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.45 · KFUM Oslo 1.36. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 7 · KFUM Oslo 12; on target 5 and 6.
KFUM Oslo kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Marius Waskaas Lien,→

1.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win”. Second comes “KFUM Oslo to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.36 for KFUM Oslo.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 919 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win38.5%

Draw27.2%

KFUM Oslo to win34.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time42.3%

KFUM Oslo lead at half-time33.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level66.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or KFUM Oslo ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 919 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 11Actual: 11
KFUM Oslo: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 4Actual: 2
KFUM Oslo: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.45

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: KFUM Oslo concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KFUM Oslo score1.36

Attack: KFUM Oslo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.4%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.