Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 25

Tromso–Viking

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Romssa Arena, Tromso

Goals and red cards

12'TromsoJ. Hjerto-Dahl
15'VikingP. Christiansen (penalty)
64'VikingS. Bjorshol (assist: E. Austbö)
87'VikingN. D'Agostino (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tromso		Viking
12	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
563	Passes	311
472	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tromso 1.34 · Viking 1.55. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Tromso 12 · Viking 10; on target 4 and 4.
Tromso kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Espen Eskas, Norway→

2.70

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “Tromso to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Tromso, 1.55 for Viking.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 913 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tromso to win31.7%

Draw26.7%

Viking to win41.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Tromso lead at half-time35.5%

Level at half-time41.0%

Viking lead at half-time23.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Tromso ahead or level76.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Viking ahead64.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 913 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tromso: at least 11Actual: 19
Viking: at least 9Actual: 17

Corners

Tromso: at least 4Actual: 1
Viking: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tromso score1.34

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viking concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viking score1.55

Attack: Viking score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–29.8%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.