Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 25

Brann–Haugesund

4–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Brann Stadion, Bergen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'BrannB. Finne (assist: U. Mathisen)
47'BrannE. Gudmundsson (assist: N. Holm)
51'BrannB. Finne (assist: U. Mathisen)
71'BrannE. Gudmundsson
84'HaugesundS. Diarra

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brann		Haugesund
20	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
536	Passes	344
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brann 2.76 · Haugesund 0.57. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Brann 20 · Haugesund 11; on target 9 and 5.
Brann kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Marius Grotta, Norway→

3.67

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.0%: “Brann to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.76 for Brann, 0.57 for Haugesund.
The highest double chance value is 95.7% (1X — Brann win or draw).
These values were computed from 912 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brann to win84.0%

Draw11.7%

Haugesund to win4.3%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 501 of 593 predictions were correct (84.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 838 of 1,955 predictions were correct (42.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Brann win or draw95.7%

12 — any result other than a draw88.3%

X2 — draw or Haugesund win16.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (11.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Brann lead at half-time52.3%

Level at half-time37.0%

Haugesund lead at half-time10.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Brann ahead or level89.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Haugesund ahead47.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 912 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brann: at least 11Actual: 20
Haugesund: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Brann: at least 7Actual: 8
Haugesund: at least 2Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals65.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,017 of 1,454 predictions were correct (69.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brann score2.76

Attack: Brann score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Haugesund concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Haugesund score0.57

Attack: Haugesund score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Brann concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.0%3–013.2%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 912 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 83 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.