Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 24

Stromsgodset–KFUM Oslo

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Marienlyst Stadion, Drammen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'KFUM OsloB. Kristensen (assist: S. Hestnes)
90'StromsgodsetF. Dahl

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stromsgodset		KFUM Oslo
11	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
445	Passes	518
365	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stromsgodset 1.15 · KFUM Oslo 1.57. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Stromsgodset 11 · KFUM Oslo 13; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

Sivert Amland, Norway→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “KFUM Oslo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Stromsgodset, 1.57 for KFUM Oslo.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (X2 — draw or KFUM Oslo win).
These values were computed from 906 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stromsgodset to win26.7%

Draw27.0%

KFUM Oslo to win46.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Stromsgodset lead at half-time19.7%

Level at half-time41.0%

KFUM Oslo lead at half-time39.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Stromsgodset ahead or level60.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or KFUM Oslo ahead80.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 906 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stromsgodset: at least 9Actual: 14
KFUM Oslo: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Stromsgodset: at least 4Actual: 3
KFUM Oslo: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stromsgodset score1.15

Attack: Stromsgodset score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KFUM Oslo concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KFUM Oslo score1.57

Attack: KFUM Oslo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stromsgodset concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.3%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.