Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 23

Haugesund–Sandefjord

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Monday, 29 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'SandefjordC. Cheng
32'SandefjordS. Sigurðarson (assist: C. Cheng)
45'HaugesundS. Diarra (penalty)
59'HaugesundT. Nyhammer (assist: A. Grindhaug)
81'SandefjordF. Pedersen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Haugesund		Sandefjord
9	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
459	Passes	537
362	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Haugesund 1.10 · Sandefjord 1.82. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Haugesund 9 · Sandefjord 17; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

Eivind Bodding, Norway→

2.13

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.9%: “Sandefjord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Haugesund, 1.82 for Sandefjord.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (X2 — draw or Sandefjord win).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Haugesund to win21.5%

Draw24.7%

Sandefjord to win53.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Haugesund lead at half-time13.7%

Level at half-time40.1%

Sandefjord lead at half-time46.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Haugesund ahead or level53.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Sandefjord ahead86.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Haugesund: at least 11Actual: 13
Sandefjord: at least 10Actual: 18

Corners

Haugesund: at least 4Actual: 1
Sandefjord: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Haugesund score1.10

Attack: Haugesund score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sandefjord's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sandefjord score1.82

Attack: Sandefjord score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Haugesund concede 39% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–210.9%0–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.