Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 22

Fredrikstad–Bryne

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'FredrikstadJ. Nunez (penalty)
88'BryneS. Bojadzic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fredrikstad		Bryne
10	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
6	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
455	Passes	433
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fredrikstad 1.74 · Bryne 1.14. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Fredrikstad 10 · Bryne 10; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Marius Waskaas Lien,→

0.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “Fredrikstad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Fredrikstad, 1.14 for Bryne.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Fredrikstad win or draw).
These values were computed from 886 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fredrikstad to win51.1%

Draw25.4%

Bryne to win23.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fredrikstad lead at half-time45.2%

Level at half-time38.4%

Bryne lead at half-time16.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Fredrikstad ahead or level83.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Bryne ahead54.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 886 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fredrikstad: at least 9Actual: 14
Bryne: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Fredrikstad: at least 5Actual: 4
Bryne: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fredrikstad score1.74

Attack: Fredrikstad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bryne's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bryne score1.14

Attack: Bryne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.7%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.