Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 21

KFUM Oslo–Viking

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 15:02
Status: Match Finished
Venue: KFUM Arena, Oslo

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.5% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'KFUM OsloD. Hickson (assist: H. Hoseth)
5'VikingD. Schneider (own goal)
19'KFUM OsloS. Hestnes (assist: M. Njie)
73'VikingM. Roseth

Match statistics

Match statistics
KFUM Oslo		Viking
10	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
461	Passes	540
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KFUM Oslo 1.34 · Viking 1.40. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots KFUM Oslo 10 · Viking 6; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Eivind Bodding, Norway→

1.86

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “KFUM Oslo to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for KFUM Oslo, 1.40 for Viking.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 884 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KFUM Oslo to win34.9%

Draw27.7%

Viking to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

KFUM Oslo lead at half-time33.7%

Level at half-time42.7%

Viking lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — KFUM Oslo ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Viking ahead66.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 884 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KFUM Oslo: at least 10Actual: 15
Viking: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

KFUM Oslo: at least 4Actual: 4
Viking: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KFUM Oslo score1.34

Attack: KFUM Oslo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viking concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viking score1.40

Attack: Viking score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: KFUM Oslo concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.40 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.2%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.