Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 20

Valerenga–Bryne

3–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 August 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Intility Arena, Oslo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'ValerengaH. Bjordal (assist: M. Ofkir)
8'ValerengaE. Sørensen (penalty)
28'ValerengaF. Thorvaldsen (assist: H. Bjordal)
45'BryneM. Thornes (assist: D. Moreira)
52'BryneH. Larsen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valerenga		Bryne
17	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
10	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
500	Passes	408
415	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valerenga 1.73 · Bryne 1.24. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Valerenga 17 · Bryne 15; on target 3 and 5.
Valerenga kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Christian Moen, Norway→

3.13

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “Valerenga to win”. Second comes “Bryne to win” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Valerenga, 1.24 for Bryne.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 870 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valerenga to win48.5%

Draw25.5%

Bryne to win26.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Valerenga lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time41.8%

Bryne lead at half-time22.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Valerenga ahead or level77.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Bryne ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 870 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valerenga: at least 10Actual: 10
Bryne: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Valerenga: at least 5Actual: 10
Bryne: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valerenga score1.73

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bryne's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bryne score1.24

Attack: Bryne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valerenga's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.5%1–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.