Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 12

KFUM Oslo–Bryne

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 July 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: KFUM Arena, Oslo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'BryneA. Kryger (penalty)
65'BryneJ. de Boer · red card
79'KFUM OsloJ. Haahr (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KFUM Oslo		Bryne
14	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
641	Passes	300
578	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KFUM Oslo 1.49 · Bryne 1.15. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots KFUM Oslo 14 · Bryne 7; on target 3 and 3.
KFUM Oslo kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Eivind Bodding, Norway→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “KFUM Oslo to win”. Second comes “Bryne to win” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for KFUM Oslo, 1.15 for Bryne.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 819 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KFUM Oslo to win44.4%

Draw27.7%

Bryne to win27.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	4

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

KFUM Oslo lead at half-time31.4%

Level at half-time41.7%

Bryne lead at half-time26.9%

First-half double chance

1X — KFUM Oslo ahead or level73.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Bryne ahead68.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 819 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KFUM Oslo: at least 10Actual: 12
Bryne: at least 10Actual: 4

Corners

KFUM Oslo: at least 4Actual: 7
Bryne: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KFUM Oslo score1.49

Attack: KFUM Oslo score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bryne's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bryne score1.15

Attack: Bryne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KFUM Oslo concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–110.0%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.