Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 36

Beitar Jerusalem–Hapoel Tel Aviv

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Beitar JerusalemB. Carabalí · red card
85'Hapoel Tel AvivO. Altman (penalty)
90'Beitar JerusalemO. Dahan (assist: G. Morozov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beitar Jerusalem		Hapoel Tel Aviv
12	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
371	Passes	345
305	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beitar Jerusalem 1.48 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.15. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Beitar Jerusalem 12 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 17; on target 1 and 3.

Referee

Y. Mizrahi→

5.22

yellows per match

0.49

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Beitar Jerusalem, 1.15 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 845 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beitar Jerusalem to win44.0%

Draw27.8%

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win28.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	16

8	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time33.5%

Level at half-time43.7%

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Beitar Jerusalem ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead66.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 844 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 14Actual: 17
Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 4Actual: 3
Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.48

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.48 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.15

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.9%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.