Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 36

Hapoel Petah Tikva–Maccabi Tel Aviv

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Maccabi Tel AvivRaz Shlomo (assist: I. Noy)
15'Hapoel Petah TikvaY. Cohen (penalty)
61'Maccabi Tel AvivD. Peretz (assist: E. Madmon)
84'Hapoel Petah TikvaMamady Diarra (assist: O. Cohen)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.11 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.96. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

I. Layba→

3.42

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.2%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, 1.96 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv win).
These values were computed from 844 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win19.5%

Draw23.3%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win57.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–1

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time16.8%

Level at half-time38.3%

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time44.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead or level55.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead83.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 843 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 13
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13

Corners

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 4
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.11

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.96

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–211.0%0–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.