Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 34

Hapoel Petah Tikva–Beitar Jerusalem

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 19 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.14 · Beitar Jerusalem 1.97. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

G. Levi→

4.60

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.6%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, 1.97 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 79.8% (X2 — draw or Beitar Jerusalem win).
These values were computed from 841 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win20.2%

Draw23.2%

Beitar Jerusalem to win56.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva win or draw43.4%

12 — any result other than a draw76.8%

X2 — draw or Beitar Jerusalem win79.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time25.7%

Level at half-time40.5%

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Beitar Jerusalem ahead74.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 840 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 13
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 13

Corners

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 3
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.14

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.97

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%1–210.9%0–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.