Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Group - 31

Maccabi Bnei Raina–Maccabi Netanya

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 18 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

12'Maccabi NetanyaMatheus Davo
51'Maccabi NetanyaO. Shamir
61'Maccabi NetanyaO. Bilu (assist: Matheus Davo)
79'Maccabi NetanyaM. Levy (assist: O. Bilu)
86'Maccabi Bnei RainaM. Shaker (assist: I. Hutba)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Bnei Raina 0.98 · Maccabi Netanya 2.02. On the pitch: 1-4.

Referee

D. Zino→

3.88

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.6%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Maccabi Bnei Raina, 2.02 for Maccabi Netanya.
The highest double chance value is 83.9% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Netanya win).
These values were computed from 841 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win16.1%

Draw22.3%

Maccabi Netanya to win61.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina win or draw38.4%

12 — any result other than a draw77.7%

X2 — draw or Maccabi Netanya win83.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time15.4%

Level at half-time37.2%

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time47.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead or level52.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or Maccabi Netanya ahead84.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 840 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 12
Maccabi Netanya: at least 13

Corners

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 4
Maccabi Netanya: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,398 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score0.98

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (48% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score2.02

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–211.0%0–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.