Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Group - 31

Ironi Kiryat Shmona–Ashdod

2–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 18 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona

Goals and red cards

24'AshdodN. Dabush (assist: D. Melandri)
41'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaJ. Al Halabi (assist: A. Shirdatzki)
64'AshdodH. Boahen (assist: E. Ansah)
77'AshdodA. Cohen (assist: Roy Gordana)
90'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaA. Ugarriza

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ironi Kiryat Shmona		Ashdod
13	Shots	24
7	Shots on target	10
8	Shots inside the box	4
7	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
340	Passes	495
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.83 · Ashdod 1.17. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Ironi Kiryat Shmona 13 · Ashdod 24; on target 7 and 10.
Ashdod kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

O. Naal→

6.43

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.7%: “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 1.17 for Ashdod.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona win or draw).
These values were computed from 841 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win52.7%

Draw24.6%

Ashdod to win22.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time37.4%

Ashdod lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Ashdod ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 840 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 13Actual: 12
Ashdod: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 4Actual: 2
Ashdod: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.83

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ashdod score1.17

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.8%2–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.