Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Group - 31

Hapoel Katamon–Ironi Tiberias

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 18 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

44'Ironi TiberiasN. Gotlieb
69'Ironi TiberiasW. Habiballah (assist: I. Baranes)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon 1.41 · Ironi Tiberias 1.19. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

A. Levi→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “Hapoel Katamon to win”. Second comes “Ironi Tiberias to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Hapoel Katamon, 1.19 for Ironi Tiberias.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 841 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Katamon to win41.2%

Draw28.3%

Ironi Tiberias to win30.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon win or draw69.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.7%

X2 — draw or Ironi Tiberias win58.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time37.3%

Level at half-time43.5%

Ironi Tiberias lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Ironi Tiberias ahead62.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 840 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Katamon: at least 12
Ironi Tiberias: at least 13

Corners

Hapoel Katamon: at least 4
Ironi Tiberias: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.41

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Tiberias concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Tiberias score1.19

Attack: Ironi Tiberias score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–09.6%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.