Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Group - 33

Hapoel Katamon–Bnei Sakhnin

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

29'Hapoel KatamonM. Hozez

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon 1.21 · Bnei Sakhnin 0.96. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

Y. Mizrahi→

5.20

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Hapoel Katamon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for Hapoel Katamon, 0.96 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (1X — Hapoel Katamon win or draw).
These values were computed from 835 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Katamon to win40.9%

Draw31.0%

Bnei Sakhnin to win28.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon win or draw71.9%

12 — any result other than a draw69.0%

X2 — draw or Bnei Sakhnin win59.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time45.8%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time22.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon ahead or level77.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 834 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Katamon: at least 12
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Katamon: at least 5
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (50.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.21

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score0.96

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–013.0%0–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.