Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Group - 33

Hapoel Haifa–Ashdod

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

Goals and red cards

73'Hapoel HaifaRoy Nawi (assist: Y. Ferber)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Haifa		Ashdod
14	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
323	Passes	414
243	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Haifa 1.62 · Ashdod 1.10. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Hapoel Haifa 14 · Ashdod 7; on target 6 and 3.
Ashdod kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

O. Grinfeld→

3.80

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.1%: “Hapoel Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Hapoel Haifa, 1.10 for Ashdod.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Hapoel Haifa win or draw).
These values were computed from 835 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Haifa to win49.1%

Draw26.6%

Ashdod to win24.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	22

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,524 of 6,225 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Haifa win or draw75.7%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Ashdod win50.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time39.4%

Ashdod lead at half-time21.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Haifa ahead or level78.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Ashdod ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 834 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Haifa: at least 12Actual: 14
Ashdod: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

Hapoel Haifa: at least 4Actual: 5
Ashdod: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score1.62

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ashdod score1.10

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.5%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 835 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 114 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.