Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 32

Hapoel Tel Aviv–Maccabi Tel Aviv

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.1% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Maccabi Tel AvivDor Peretz (assist: R. Revivo)
87'Hapoel Tel AvivR. Korine (assist: L. Loizou)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Tel Aviv		Maccabi Tel Aviv
19	Shots	1
6	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
338	Passes	322
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.34 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.31. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Hapoel Tel Aviv 19 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1; on target 6 and 1.

Referee

S. Levi→

5.00

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 1.31 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 832 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win36.5%

Draw28.2%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time43.0%

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time33.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead or level66.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 831 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 14Actual: 17
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 3Actual: 11
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.34

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.31

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.31 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.0%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.