Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 32

Maccabi Haifa–Beitar Jerusalem

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Maccabi HaifaN. Ratner (assist: C. Don)
59'Maccabi HaifaSilva Kani (assist: J. Bataille)
88'Maccabi HaifaTrivante Stewart (assist: N. Ratner)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Haifa		Beitar Jerusalem
10	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
309	Passes	507
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Haifa 1.46 · Beitar Jerusalem 1.66. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Maccabi Haifa 10 · Beitar Jerusalem 18; on target 6 and 4.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

D. Fuxman→

4.32

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Haifa to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Maccabi Haifa, 1.66 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 832 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Haifa to win32.5%

Draw25.6%

Beitar Jerusalem to win41.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time34.8%

Level at half-time39.9%

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time25.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Haifa ahead or level74.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Beitar Jerusalem ahead65.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 831 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Haifa: at least 12Actual: 12
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Maccabi Haifa: at least 4Actual: 5
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score1.46

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.66

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–29.8%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.