Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Group - 33

Maccabi Bnei Raina–Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

45'Maccabi Bnei RainaA. Sefer (assist: V. Damascan)
48'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaAdrián Ugarriza (assist: Y. Mordechai)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.05 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.81. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

A. Shiloach→

4.12

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.0%: “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Maccabi Bnei Raina, 1.81 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (X2 — draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona win).
These values were computed from 832 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win20.4%

Draw24.6%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win55.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina win or draw45.0%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona win79.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time19.7%

Level at half-time39.6%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time40.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead or level59.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead80.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 831 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 13
Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 13

Corners

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 4
Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score1.05

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (47% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.81

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–210.9%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.