Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 31

Hapoel Tel Aviv–Beitar Jerusalem

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 6 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Hapoel Tel AvivE. Y. Kancepolsky · red card
45'Beitar JerusalemJ. Kalu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Tel Aviv		Beitar Jerusalem
7	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	9
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
298	Passes	467
211	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.47 · Beitar Jerusalem 1.24. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hapoel Tel Aviv 7 · Beitar Jerusalem 15; on target 2 and 7.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

A. Klein→

4.70

yellows per match

0.52

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “Beitar Jerusalem to win” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 1.24 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 830 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win41.8%

Draw27.6%

Beitar Jerusalem to win30.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	8

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time33.7%

Level at half-time42.2%

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time24.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead or level76.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Beitar Jerusalem ahead66.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 829 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 13
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 3Actual: 4
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.47

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.24

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.24 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.8%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.