Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 31

Maccabi Tel Aviv–Hapoel Petah Tikva

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 5 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Maccabi Tel AvivDor Peretz (assist: E. Sahiti)
45'Maccabi Tel AvivT. Asante (assist: R. Revivo)
83'Maccabi Tel AvivR. Revivo (assist: I. Shahar)
86'Maccabi Tel AvivE. Madmon (assist: R. Revivo)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.16 · Hapoel Petah Tikva 0.98. On the pitch: 4-0.

Referee

Y. Mizrahi→

5.28

yellows per match

0.51

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.7%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.16 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 0.98 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 85.5% (1X — Maccabi Tel Aviv win or draw).
These values were computed from 829 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win64.7%

Draw20.8%

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win14.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 2–0

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time42.1%

Level at half-time39.3%

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead57.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 828 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 13

Corners

Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 5
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score2.16

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score0.98

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.3%1–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.